A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."